What is Hindsight bias?
Hindsight bias is one of those fascinating quirks of human psychology that we all experience, often without even realizing it. Without diving too deeply into the technical definition, think of it this way:whenever you think like above meme
there’s a good chance that hindsight bias is quietly working behind the scenes.
The Literal Definition
The formal definition of hindsight bias is as follows:
The tendency people have to believe, after an event has occurred, that they “knew it all along” or that the outcome was more predictable than it actually was.
For example, imagine you attend a baseball game. After the game ends, you might find yourself insisting, “I knew the winning team was going to win!” even though, in reality, you had no way of knowing beforehand. This is hindsight bias in action—it tricks us into thinking the outcome was obvious all along.
Let’s Explore Some Recent Examples of Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias isn’t just limited to sports or casual conversations; it shows up in real-world events, often shaping how we interpret and react to them. Here are a couple of recent examples:
1. Recent murder Cases and Cultural Narratives
When the chilling Meerut Drum Case came to light, where a man’s body was found stuffed in a drum, it sparked a wave of reactions. Suddenly, self-proclaimed cultural guardians—those uncles who believe they are the sole preservers of tradition—began loudly proclaiming on their phones (with the volume turned up, of course) that “Love marriages are bad!”
Fast forward to the Indore Couple Case in Meghalaya, where a man was killed, and the narrative shifted. This time, the youth took to social media, creating memes and posts declaring that “Arranged marriages are the real problem!”
In both cases, hindsight bias was at play. People retroactively connected the dots to fit their pre-existing beliefs, ignoring the complexity of the situations. In reality, these cases were outliers in a population of over a billion people. Moreover, the individuals involved in these incidents exhibited clear signs of psychological issues, such as narcissism, which were largely overlooked in the public discourse.
2. IPOs Are Easy Money
Another classic example of hindsight bias can be seen in the world of investing, particularly with Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). When an IPO performs exceptionally well, people often say, “It was obvious this stock was going to skyrocket!” But was it really that obvious?
The truth is, predicting the success of an IPO is far from straightforward. For every success story, there are countless IPOs that fail to deliver. Yet, in hindsight, people tend to focus only on the winners, convincing themselves that they “knew it all along.” This bias can lead to overconfidence and poor investment decisions in the future.
Why Does Hindsight Bias Matter?
Hindsight bias isn’t just an amusing quirk; it has real-world implications. It can distort our understanding of events, influence our decision-making, and even affect how we assign blame or responsibility. By recognizing this bias, we can strive to approach situations with a more balanced perspective, acknowledging the uncertainty of the future rather than rewriting the past to make it seem inevitable.
Solution: Journaling—A Simple Yet Powerful Tool
The antidote to hindsight bias is surprisingly simple: journaling.
Here’s how you can apply journaling to combat hindsight bias in different areas of life:
Sports Predictions: Before watching a match, write down which team you think will win and why.
Investing in Stocks: Before investing in a stock, jot down your expectations. For example, write when you believe the stock will grow, what factors might drive its performance, and what risks you foresee.
Everyday Decisions: Journaling isn’t limited to big events. You can use it for everyday decisions, like predicting how a project at work will turn out or how a conversation with a friend might go. By reflecting on your predictions later, you’ll gain valuable insights into your thought processes and biases.